New York—Betting markets are pricing in a 10% chance that the anonymous creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, will move coins in 2/2026 following the release of a new documentary. According to dailycryptobriefs.com, Polymarket odds for the event jumped after the film 'Finding Satoshi' hit screens on April 22.
The documentary, available through Findingsatoshi.com, presents a theory that Bitcoin was not the work of a single individual but a joint effort between software developer Hal Finney and cryptographer Len Sassaman. The film follows a four-year investigation by journalist William D. Cohan and private investigator Tyler Maroney.
While the film claims to present an evidence-based investigation, the official site does not disclose any cryptographic proof or private-key evidence to support the claim. The production features interviews with prominent industry figures including Michael Saylor, Joseph Lubin, and Gary Gensler.
Evidence and skepticism
The documentary links technical skills, privacy-tech networks, and timing to suggest Finney handled the code while Sassaman managed the white paper and written identity. Decrypt’s review of the film notes that the production includes Fran Finney, who discusses the emotional weight of her late husband's potential role.
Industry leaders have offered split reactions. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong praised the documentary prior to its release, but Adam Back has pushed back against the theory. As reported by CoinMarketCap, Back called the film's logic 'odd' and argued the evidence remains circumstantial, particularly regarding Sassaman's academic work.
Proponents of the Finney-Sassaman theory point to the timeline of Satoshi's disappearance. Satoshi told developer Mike Hearn on April 23, 2011, that he had moved on. Three days later, the public trail for the creator effectively ended. This coincides with Finney’s ALS diagnosis in August 2009 and his subsequent physical decline.
Finney's early involvement in the network is well-documented. He ran Bitcoin v0.1 almost immediately after its January 2009 release. The Satoshi Nakamoto Institute’s RPOW archive describes his Reusable Proof-of-Work as a precursor to the Bitcoin system.
The debate also carries market implications. The movement of Satoshi-era coins is a central part of the ongoing post-quantum risk discussion. Some industry proposals suggest freezing early Bitcoin wallets if users do not migrate before legacy signatures are sunset due to quantum computing threats.
As of now, the original Satoshi wallets remain untouched. The 10% shift in prediction markets indicates that traders are now assigning real probability to a wallet event following the resurgence of the Finney-Sassaman theory.
