Bernstein analysts lowered price targets on Coinbase, Robinhood, and Figure Technology Solutions on Monday according to a note published by Decrypt. The firm cited geopolitical headwinds and weak crypto sentiment as primary drivers for the adjustment across the sector. Despite the reductions, the analysts maintained Outperform ratings on all three companies, signaling confidence in long-term growth despite near-term volatility. This move highlights the complex relationship between short-term market pressures and long-term asset class potential.
Price Target Adjustments
The San Francisco-based investment bank reduced its valuation expectations significantly across the board in the latest research note. Bernstein lowered its price target on Coinbase to $330 from $440, representing a substantial drop in the near-term outlook. Robinhood targets fell to $130 from $160, while Figure Technology Solutions targets dropped to $67 from $72. These adjustments reflect the current market environment where stocks trade roughly 60% below their 2025 peaks.
Market Dynamics and Fundamentals
Coinbase faces the most direct exposure to cryptocurrency price movements among the three firms analyzed by the team. Spot volumes are tracking roughly 30% below Q4 2025 levels, prompting a cut in 2026 earnings per share estimates by 44%. Bernstein analysts noted that the firm projects a 26% revenue compound annual growth rate through 2027. This growth projection relies heavily on the firm's stablecoin revenue streams and derivatives business expansion following the Deribit acquisition. The San Francisco-based exchange receives roughly half of Circle's USDC income.
"In our view, these businesses offer exposure to trillion dollar markets with years of growth ahead," Bernstein analysts wrote.
Robinhood and Figure will have an easier time rebounding because of their more limited exposure to crypto prices. The analysts argued that revenues unlinked to crypto recovery provide stronger resilience for these specific entities. Crypto constitutes mere 20% of Robinhood revenues, allowing prediction markets to emerge as a meaningful revenue driver. The firm expects prediction markets to contribute roughly $586 million in 2026, a 286% jump year-over-year. This growth is supported by its Kalshi distribution deal and proprietary exchange Rothera.
Figure operates as a pure-play blockchain tokenization platform that crossed one billion in monthly loan origination volume in March. The company is expanding beyond its core home equity line of credit business into auto loans and small business lending. Bernstein noted the company went public in September at a five point three billion valuation. This diversification strategy aims to reduce reliance on volatile digital asset markets.
Future Outlook
The analysts believe they will see a bottom in crypto stocks into weak Q1 earnings reports. Geopolitical tensions and regulatory uncertainty continue to weigh on investor sentiment across the sector. Stablecoins and tokenized real world assets remain key growth vectors for the industry. Investors should watch for signs of recovery in trading volumes and institutional adoption.
Market participants will monitor how these companies navigate the current macroeconomic headwinds. The divergence between price targets and buy ratings suggests a long-term bullish thesis remains intact. Short-term volatility may persist as the sector digests recent earnings data. The coming quarters will determine if the projected growth materializes as expected.
The note was written by analyst Gautam Chhugani, who has tracked the sector closely. His assessment underscores the difficulty of timing the market bottom during periods of geopolitical instability. Investors often look to analyst ratings as a guide when navigating volatile digital asset markets. This perspective provides a counter-narrative to the prevailing bearish sentiment in the broader technology sector.
