A 'Virtuous Cycle' Between Autonomous Driving and Core Business
As Tesla continues to deepen its efforts in autonomous driving technology, Wall Street investment bank Morgan Stanley has provided a positive assessment of its future prospects. Following a recent site visit to Tesla's Giga Texas, the analyst team stated that Tesla has made significant progress in handling complex pickup and drop-off scenarios—areas that were previously 'blind spots' with limited data for autonomous driving technology.
Morgan Stanley analysts pointed out that the advancement of the Robotaxi business is forming a critical virtuous cycle: as autonomous driving mileage increases, Tesla's underlying autonomous driving models will continue to evolve, thereby accelerating the implementation of Full Self-Driving (FSD) for individual users. This technological leap will directly increase the take rate of FSD software, subsequently enhancing the market appeal of Tesla vehicles and ultimately translating into stronger vehicle deliveries and cash flow. For Tesla, which has seen consecutive declines in deliveries in recent years, this is undoubtedly a crucial turning point.
Cost Advantages Build Competitive Barriers
Beyond the technological benefits, cost control is another key reason why Morgan Stanley is bullish on Tesla. According to the bank's estimates, Tesla's current Robotaxi operating cost is approximately $0.81 per mile, a figure already lower than traditional ride-hailing services and the autonomous driving solutions of other competitors.
Analysts believe that as models specifically designed for autonomous driving (such as the Cybercab) achieve mass production, operating costs are expected to decline further. This significant cost advantage will allow Tesla to take the initiative in the future shared mobility market and further consolidate its leading position in the autonomous driving sector.
Market Expectations and Rating Maintenance
Despite their optimism regarding Tesla's long-term technological path, Morgan Stanley remains cautious in its investment advice. The bank currently maintains an 'Equal-weight' rating on Tesla stock, with a price target of $415, representing a premium of approximately 4% over the current share price.
For Tesla, although the Robotaxi is viewed as a core growth engine for the future, how to balance investment in new technology R&D with the short-term growth pressures of its core automotive business remains a focus for investors. As FSD technology continues to mature, the market is closely watching whether Tesla can translate this technological advantage into tangible financial gains and reverse the trend of declining deliveries over the past two years.