A new study released by the Brazilian cryptocurrency exchange Mercado Bitcoin suggests that Bitcoin has emerged as a formidable rival to traditional safe-haven assets, demonstrating superior resilience in the face of global crises.
Led by Mercado Bitcoin’s head of research, Rony Szuster, the study analyzed market trends following several key crisis points, including the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and shifts in U.S. trade tariff policies. The data shows that in the 60-day window following these events, Bitcoin’s returns consistently outpaced both gold and the S&P 500.
For instance, following the announcement of major U.S. tariffs last April, Bitcoin’s price jumped 24% over the subsequent 60 days, while gold rose by 8% and the S&P 500 gained only 4%. A similar pattern emerged during the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, when Bitcoin recorded a 21% gain, once again outperforming other asset classes.
Volatility and Long-Term Resilience
Although Bitcoin is known for its high volatility, Szuster argues that investors should not evaluate its safe-haven status solely based on its performance during the immediate onset of a crisis. He likens drawing conclusions too early to "guessing the ending of a movie after watching only the first few minutes."
"During times of crisis, investors often sell off holdings to reduce risk or raise cash, and even so-called safe-haven assets can see declines," Szuster explained. He emphasized that despite short-term liquidity pressures, Bitcoin has demonstrated a robust ability to rebound throughout historical cycles.
This trend was further validated during the recent Iran-Israel conflict. According to Mercado Bitcoin’s data, Bitcoin is currently the only asset among the three to maintain positive returns. Since the conflict began, Bitcoin’s price has risen more than 2.2%, climbing from approximately $65,800 to $67,300. In contrast, gold—a traditional safe haven—has fallen by about 11% over the same period, while the S&P 500 has dropped 4.4%, marking its largest monthly decline since 2022.
The study further notes that Bitcoin has been the best-performing asset class over the past decade. Despite market fluctuations, its performance in navigating systemic risks is gradually shifting how institutional investors perceive it as 'digital gold.'
