On-chain analytics firm Bubblemaps recently released a report revealing that a group of linked accounts earned over $600,000 by betting on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement on the prediction market Polymarket. These accounts executed a series of precise trades following Donald Trump’s announcement of a conditional ceasefire, resulting in significant profits.
Bubblemaps identified the core accounts involved as “djijaij83jdo4jdlwjflsg,” “Elonfax89678,” and “Skoobidoobnj.” The firm noted that these accounts not only profited from the recent ceasefire but also secured approximately $1.2 million in gains during the U.S. and Israeli military strikes against Iran back in February.
Beyond the cloud of suspicion surrounding insider trading in prediction markets, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire also sent shockwaves through the crypto derivatives market. According to Decrypt, the sharp drop in oil prices following the ceasefire led to massive liquidations on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid. Data shows that nearly 3,000 traders betting on Brent and WTI crude oil futures were forced into liquidation due to extreme price volatility, resulting in a staggering $79.7 million in nominal losses.
“This cluster has been active in military-related markets since 2024, placing bets through a mix of new and old accounts and repeatedly predicting sudden military actions with high accuracy,” a Bubblemaps spokesperson told Decrypt. While the accounts have not been perfect—for instance, the cluster lost nearly $50,000 on ceasefire bets leading up to March 31—their consistently high win rate has fueled market concerns regarding potential insider trading.
Bubblemaps emphasized that there is currently no definitive evidence proving these accounts possess non-public information. The spokesperson explained, “We cannot verify the personal financial status of these traders; we can only confirm that these bets are massive in scale and impeccably timed.”
Recently, the issue of insider trading in prediction markets has moved to the forefront of regulatory scrutiny. California Governor Gavin Newsom recently signed an executive order prohibiting political appointees and their associates from using non-public information to profit in prediction markets. Meanwhile, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have begun tightening risk controls, attempting to implement pre-screening mechanisms to block trading by political figures. Previously, Kalshi fined and banned an influencer who had used insider information to profit on the platform. The Prediction Market Coalition responded by stating that trading on material non-public information is illegal, calling on regulators to distinguish between compliant platforms and offshore entities to ensure overall market transparency.
