Iran is imposing a $1-per-barrel toll on oil tankers navigating the Strait of Hormuz, mandating that payments be made in cryptocurrency to circumvent potential sanctions. The policy coincides with the nation entering a two-week ceasefire with the United States.
According to reports citing Hamid Hosseini, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas, and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, vessels must email cargo details to Iranian authorities for review. Once approved, ships are given a narrow window to complete their Bitcoin payments. “Once the email arrives and Iran completes its assessment, vessels are given a few seconds to pay in bitcoin, ensuring they can’t be traced or confiscated due to sanctions,” Hosseini told the Financial Times. He maintained that these stringent checks are intended to prevent weapons from entering the waterway.
While the ceasefire has triggered a decline in global oil prices—with Brent crude falling to approximately $94.44—the strait remains under strict Iranian military control. Reuters reported that shipping traffic will continue to require coordination with Iranian authorities, meaning the transit corridor is not yet fully reopened.
Prediction market irregularities
As diplomatic efforts shifted, activity on the blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket suggested that some traders may have possessed non-public information. While initial reports identified four wallets, The Guardian reported that an analysis of blockchain data via Dune suggests at least 50 newly created accounts placed substantial 'yes' bets on the ceasefire prior to the official announcement.
These wagers were placed despite high geopolitical tension; earlier that day, Donald Trump had issued a social media warning stating that 'a whole civilization will die tonight' if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. ET. According to The Guardian, some traders may have been betting on the possibility that Trump would retreat from his threats—a phenomenon critics have dubbed 'Taco'—while others appear to have acted on information regarding late-stage diplomatic interventions by the government of Pakistan to extend the deadline.
One wallet, created just 12 minutes before Trump’s announcement, invested $31,908 to earn a profit of $48,500. Another user, who joined the platform on the day of the announcement, turned $72,000 into a $200,000 profit. The precise timing and lack of prior trading history for these accounts have fueled widespread suspicion regarding insider trading. Polymarket facilitates these trades using USDC stablecoins on the Polygon blockchain, rendering all transactions publicly visible. While the platform does not currently enforce formal insider trading regulations, the incident highlights the intersection of decentralized finance and high-stakes geopolitical maneuvering.