Fundstrat co-founder and macro strategist Tom Lee told CNBC on Wednesday that the ceasefire in Iran signals that the stock market has officially "bottomed out." If this holds true, it serves as a major catalyst for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader cryptocurrency market.
Lee noted that as geopolitical tensions ease, macroeconomic headwinds are beginning to subside. He identified a clear technical threshold: once the S&P 500 clears its 200-day moving average of 6,617, the market is poised for a "decisive rally." As of Thursday morning, E-mini futures had climbed to 6,820, successfully breaching that key benchmark.
A Rally for Risk Assets
Lee’s bullish outlook rests on two core pillars. First, he observed that between mid-March and early April, the S&P 500 climbed from 6,300 to 6,600 even as oil prices surged from $87 to $116 amid escalating conflict. This, he argues, proves the market’s remarkable resilience under wartime pressure.
Second, the ceasefire is being viewed as an "inflection point for the rate of change." Lee believes that even if the truce remains fragile, the shift from escalation to de-escalation has significantly improved market sentiment. Driven by this news, the stock market jumped 2.5% in a single day, oil prices slid 15%, and the VIX volatility index dropped below 20.
Bitcoin and the crypto market are direct beneficiaries of this recovery. Late Wednesday, Bitcoin broke through the $72,000 level, mirroring the 1.9% gain in S&P 500 futures. Since the conflict began, major risk assets have shown a high degree of correlation, with stocks, metals, and cryptocurrencies moving in lockstep based on geopolitical catalysts.
It is worth noting that Lee himself has significant exposure to the crypto space; his firm purchased 71,252 ETH last week. While this bullish outlook is currently gaining traction, some analysts caution that if the ceasefire falters, stocks and cryptocurrencies could quickly retreat to their recent lows.