Bitcoin has outperformed both gold and the S&P 50 and since late February, according to a new memo from Bitwise analysts. The wealth manager argues that recent geopolitical tensions are not harming the cryptocurrency but are instead fueling its rise.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen noted that Bitcoin has climbed 12% since the start of the Iran conflict. During the same period, the S&P 500 slipped 1% and gold fell 10%.
Analysts rejected the idea that Bitcoin should behave as a high-beta risk asset during geopolitical shocks. "Chaos is a ladder," Hougan and Rasmussen wrote in a Tuesday memo to clients.
The shift toward non-dollar rails
The firm frames Bitcoin as a dual-purpose asset. The first role is as a store of value competing with gold. The second is a potential settlement currency for international trade.
Bitwise argues the second use case is gaining traction as nations seek to bypass the weaponization of financial infrastructure. The firm points to the 2022 removal of Russia from the SWIFT network as a catalyst for trade flows rerouting through alternative systems, particularly in China.
Recent signals suggest further movement away from traditional systems. Bitwise highlighted reports of Iran's willingness to accept Bitcoin for oil transit-related payments as evidence of an experimental move toward apolitical alternatives.
While sanctions and blockchain transparency limit illicit use, the firm believes the broader signal of fragmentation is driving adoption. Bitwise likens Bitcoin’s currency use case to an out-of-the-money call option that gains value as global volatility increases.