A Polymarket trader turned a $500 wager into $252,000 in profit following a scoring error by UFC announcer Bruce Buffer during the UFC 327 event in Miami.
The error occurred for the second time in two weeks when Buffer incorrectly announced American lightweight Chris Padilla as the winner against MarQuel Mederos. The mistake caused Polymarket's odds for Padilla to spike to a 99.9% win probability before the error was corrected.
After a commercial break, commentator Jon Adik clarified that the fight had actually been scored as a majority draw. This correction caused the market odds to swing back to a 50% split, creating a massive opportunity for bettors positioned on the underdog.
Exploiting the scoring discrepancy
The trader, using the handle JESUSCHRISTISGOOD on Polymarket, identified the discrepancy by reviewing the official fight scorecard. According to an X account linked to the trader, they noticed that judges had erroneously tallied points in favor of Padilla.
"I quickly bought all the shares at 0.1c & waited for the result to be corrected," the trader posted on X. This move allowed them to capture a roughly 50,000% gain as the market corrected itself to reflect the draw.
While the trader profited, the volatility wiped out significant value for those who had wagered on Padilla during the period of misinformation. The incident highlights how broadcast errors can influence prediction markets as heavily as athlete performance.
Critics have raised concerns regarding the accuracy of these 'truth machines.' Journalist Dustin Gourker questioned the reliability of the platform on X, asking why the market was reporting the wrong result during the error.
Polymarket and its rival Kalshi are currently refining systems to detect suspicious transactions. These efforts follow pressure from U.S. lawmakers regarding potential market manipulation and insider trading on prediction platforms.
Polymarket has already established partnerships with major sports leagues, including an agreement with Major League Baseball. The platform's CEO, Shayne Coplan, previously stated that these partnerships aim to allow fans to watch 'the world’s expectations evolve with every round.'
